Information technology (IT) stocks ended at their lowest in nearly nine months after a fresh bout of selling, triggered by concerns over a recession in the US, the key market for domestic software exporters. A report by Morgan Stanley citing risks to growth also weighed on sentiment.
The trigger for international gold prices rising to $3,000 per ounce was Germany's upcoming heavy government borrowing.
Cooking gas or Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) price has been raised by Rs 50 per cylinder by distribution companies, Union Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Monday.
Equity benchmark indices are facing massive corrections, with the NSE Nifty declining over 14 per cent from its lifetime high hit in September last year due to several negative triggers like stretched valuations, foreign fund exodus, disappointing quarterly earnings and rising global trade tensions dragging markets lower. The BSE benchmark Sensex hit its record peak of 85,978.25 on September 27 last year, and the Nifty also reached a lifetime high of 26,277.35 on the same day.
India is facing no risk of recession or stagflation as macroeconomic fundamentals of the economy are strong, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Monday. Replying to a debate on price rise in the Lok Sabha, she said the GST collection and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) are indicating that the Indian economy is getting more robust. The GST collection rose 28 per cent to touch the second-highest level of Rs 1.49 lakh crore in July. GST, introduced in July 2017, touched a record high of Rs 1.68 lakh crore in April 2022.
India has been relatively insulated from the severe headwinds in the West. However, with a third of the global economy expected to slip into recession in calendar year 2023, the impact will strongly be felt on India's exports and trade economy, leading economists said in a panel discussion at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit in Mumbai on Wednesday. The panel comprised former Reserve Bank of India executive director and former Monetary Policy Committee member Mridul Saggar, State Bank of India Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Citibank India Chief Economist Samiran Chakraborty, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar, and IndusInd Bank Chief Economist Gaurav Kapoor. The topic of the panel discussion was No recession in sight: Is India decoupled from developed economies?
The Indian economy is expected to be "a little weaker" in 2025 despite steady global growth, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva has said. Georgieva also said she expects quite a lot of uncertainty in the world this year mainly around the trade policy of the US. In her annual media roundtable with a group of reporters on Friday, she said global growth is expected to be steady in 2025, but with regional divergence.
Trump's sweeping tariffs and penalties on China-built ships have turned global shipping into the front line of economic war, observes Shyam G Menon.
India's Parliament is set to begin its Budget session on Friday, with opposition parties poised to demand a discussion on the alleged mismanagement of the Maha Kumbh festival in Prayagraj, where 30 pilgrims died in a stampede. The opposition also accused the government of politicising parliamentary committees and pushing its agenda through its majority. The session will start with President Droupadi Murmu addressing both houses of Parliament. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget on Saturday for the eighth consecutive time.
The sweeping economic sanctions on Russia - the second largest producer of crude oil - following its invasion of Ukraine late last month can cull global and domestic growth along with the added pains of higher inflation and currency depreciation, RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra has said. And if the war lingers on, it can even lead to deglobalisation and even a recession, he added. The ongoing war has only added a whole new dimension to the outlook, and in fact, a weighty downside, Patra said in a lecture at the industry lobby IMC on Friday evening.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 14,790 crore ($1.8 billion) from financial stocks in the first half of August, driven by global risk aversion sparked by US recession fears. Additional factors contributing to the decline in banking stocks included subdued earnings growth in the June quarter, concerns about slowing deposit growth, and stricter liquidity norms imposed by the Reserve Bank of India.
India's e-commerce market alone is projected to reach $200 billion by 2026, making it a prime industry for ambitious entrepreneurs, explains rediffGURU Harsh Bharwani.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said the Indian economy may have slowed down but there is no threat of a recession.
Foreign investors continued their relentless selling in the Indian equity markets in August, offloading shares worth Rs 21,201 crore due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade, recession fears in the US and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. This came after an inflow of Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, data with the depositories showed.
Divya Nair/Rediff.com speaks to students and experts to find out whether it is better to study management in India or try for an international MBA.
'Justice may or may not happen, but who are those people who did this to her?' 'If the hospital authorities had helped us that day, or the police, then the real culprits would have been caught.' 'Getting justice for my daughter is my goal now and I want the CM to remember that.'
With the earnings season drawing to a close, stock markets will take cues from global trends and foreign investors' trading activity this week, analysts said. The US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes will be the major highlight this week, experts said. "This week, there are fewer cues on the macro and micro fronts, as the Q1 earnings season has concluded.
Benchmark BSE Sensex and Nifty closed lower by nearly 1 per cent on Tuesday amid fresh foreign fund outflows and mixed global trends. The 30-share BSE benchmark fell by 497.73 points or 0.89 per cent to settle at 55,268.49, extending its losses for second straight day. During the day, it tanked 562.79 points or 1 per cent to 55,203.43. The broader NSE Nifty declined by 147.15 points or 0.88 per cent to 16,483.85.
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
Release of key macroeconomic numbers, monthly derivatives expiry, and global cues are likely to drive stock market movement this week, according to analysts. Markets will also be reacting to remarks made by the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they said. "This week, we expect the market to witness a gradual up-move with stock-specific action.
'In the short term you keep your return expectations very, very low; in the medium term be prepared to invest and in the long term growth will come and your returns from stocks will be high.'
Business cycle funds aim to optimise returns by aligning their portfolios with different phases of the economic cycle. First-time investors, those who prefer stable sector allocations, and those averse to volatility should steer clear of them.
Apart from the emotional value attached to buying gold, the yellow metal offers protection against inflation, interest rate spikes, currency and geopolitical risks, says Anamika Pareek.
Benchmark Sensex bounced back from early lows and closed higher by nearly 376 points on Monday, snapping its four-day losing run following a rally in blue-chips ICICI Bank, HUL and HDFC Bank. The 30-share BSE Sensex rebounded 375.61 points or 0.46 per cent to settle at 81,559.54. The index opened lower and hit a low of 80,895.05 points in early trade.
The world is in the face of a devastating impact due to the coronavirus pandemic and has clearly entered a recession, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday, but projected a recovery next year. "We have reassessed the prospects for growth for 2020 and 2021. It is now clear that we have entered a recession as bad or worse than in 2009. We do project recovery in 2021," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters at a news conference.
Tata Indica, the Tata Group's big passenger car bet, was not delivering expected returns a year into its launch. Desperate, the Tata Motors brass, led by Ratan Tata, acceded to a meeting request from Ford Motors for a possible sale of the passenger vehicles division to the American auto major. Some people had advised Tata to sell the business, and the Ford officials came to Bombay House to hold talks.
It is all about learning new things. The more skills you have, the better your chances of getting hired are, says Sarita Digumarti.
From the Sensex pack, Tata Motors slumped over 7 per cent. Adani Ports, Tata Steel, SBI, Power Grid, JSW Steel and Maruti were the other big laggards. However, Hindustan Unilever and Nestle ended in positive territory.
Most of the Sensex firms settled in the positive territory. Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra, JSW Steel, State Bank of India, HCL Technologies, Reliance Industries and Infosys were the biggest gainers. Kotak Mahindra Bank and Maruti were the laggards.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Deputy Managing Director (MD) Gita Gopinath has condemned the "terrible and disturbing" incident of rape and murder of a trainee doctor in Kolkata. "Personally, it is terrible to have any event of this kind. It is disturbing," she told Business Standard in New Delhi.
Vice President Kamala Harris, who is the Democratic presidential candidate, in an op-ed on Saturday, recollected her frequent visit to India as a child, and her mother's mission to cure cancer.
'Investors with foreign currency-denominated goals, such as foreign education or foreign travel, should go for US equity funds.'
Recession and tight liquidity has forced Bollywood to go in for cost cutting and slowdown on several projects. Filmmaker Mukesh Bhatt feels that distributors have been severely hit by the recession.
The rupee remains overvalued against the currencies of India's trading partners, even as it hit record lows against the dollar in August and September. According to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) real effective exchange rate (REER) index, the rupee stood at 5.5 per cent above its fair value in August, down from 7.7 per cent in July. This slight easing followed fears of a US recession and the unwinding of yen carry trades, which exerted pressure on the Indian currency.
The word 'recession' is being frequently used in India in recent months despite the fact that the economy continues to grow
'The economy will pick up in 2020 or a little later... When it picks up, will it reach 10%, 8% or still lower? It all depends on how realistic are the diagnosis and the prescriptions that follow,' says Professor K J Joseph.
From Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, UltraTech Cement, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies, ICICI Bank and Tata Steel were the biggest gainers. Sun Pharma emerged as the only laggard.
Foreign investors have injected close to Rs 33,700 crore in domestic equities in this month so far primarily due to interest rate cut in the US and resilience of the Indian market. This also marks the second highest inflow in a month in this year so far, the last one being in March, when Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) infused Rs 35,100 crore, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, the trend of FPIs buying is likely to continue in the coming days, V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said.
Foreign investors have adopted a cautious stance and infused Rs 7,320 crore in the Indian equities in August owing to high valuation of stocks and the unwinding of the Yen carry trade after Bank of Japan raised interest rates. This investment was way lower than Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, according to data with the depositories. While September is likely to see continued interest from FPIs, the flows would be shaped by a combination of domestic political stability, economic indicators, global interest rate movements, market valuations, sectoral preferences, and the attractiveness of the debt market, Vipul Bhowar, Director Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
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